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Research
Aims
Rose's PhD research is informed by a desire to help close
the gap between ‘where we are now’ and ‘where we need to
be’, in terms of the Bristol region's carbon emissions. It
has three aims: identifying current emission sources, and
their potential change over time given historical and
projected trends, and national and local low carbon policy;
envisioning several broadly consensual preferable future
scenarios for the city region, having achieved its carbon
reduction ambitions; and determining how the achievement of
the future vision(s) might occur, and its compatibility with
current progress. The research involved the following
methodological approach:
- Forecasting future emission trajectories for the city region
based on historical trends, current projections and anticipated
future low carbon activities, using local and national plans and
policies.
- Using a Delphi method with local ‘expert’ stakeholders to
envision a number of broadly consensual low carbon scenarios for
the city region in 2050.
- 'Backcasting’ from the scenarios with stakeholders to
identify a trajectory and actions/drivers to bring about the
2050 low carbon scenarios.
- Comparing the scenarios and backcast trajectories with
forecast emission trajectories, to identify areas of
discontinuity and assess progress towards a desirable low carbon
future
As a result of the above aims and methods, Rose's research
set out to answer the following research questions:
- What do stakeholders think a low carbon Bristol region in
2050 might look like?
- What are the drivers and actions that bring about these
futures, at what points in time do they occur, and are they
compatible with current emission trajectories?
- Is scenario creation using Delphi and backcasting methods an
effective approach to carbon management?
Research Outputs
Papers: PhD
Bailey, R., Longhurst, J.W.S., Hayes, E.T., Hudson, L.,
Ragnarsdottir, K.V. and Thumim, J. (2012) Exploring a city's
potential low carbon futures using Delphi methods: some
preliminary findings Journal of Environmental Planning
and Management (In Press) [Available from
http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09640568.2011.635192]
Bailey, R., Longhurst, J.W.S., Hayes, E.T., Hudson, L.,
Ragnarsdottir, K.V. and Thumim, J. (2011) Envisioning
the Future: a Methodology for City Scale Carbon Management
The International Journal
of Climate Change: Impacts and Responses, 2(4): 51-66
[Available from:
http://ijc.cgpublisher.com/product/pub.185/prod.110]
Bailey, R., and Longhurst, J.W.S., 2010. Case Study: 2050
Bristol - a world leader in Green business and sustainable
living. Environmental Scientist, August 2010, pp.29-34.
[Available from:
http://www.ies-uk.org.uk/resources/imagining_britain_2050]
Papers: other
Longhurst, J.W.S., and Bailey, R. (2011) 'International
Initiatives on Low Carbon Cities.' Academy
of Science of South Africa workshop “Pathways towards
a low carbon city”, held at the UNFCC Conference of the
Parties, Durban South Africa on 5 December 2011.
[Available from: http://www.assaf.org.za/environment-energy-and-water/]
Bailey, R. (2011) 'The Bristol 2050 Plan: Carbon emission
assumptions', briefing report for GWE Business West project
"Bristol 2050" [Available from:
http://www.bristol2050.co.uk/images/stories/pdf/Carbon_assumptions_for_Bristol_2050_plan.pdf]
Presentations: Conferences and
seminars
Faculty of
Environment and Technology Student Research Conference Presentation -
University of the West of England, 20 June 2011. Winner 'best presentation'
15th IUAPPA World Clean Air Congress - Vancouver, Canada. 12-16
September 2010. Presentation: City-Scale Carbon
Management: an innovative methodology for imagining a low carbon future.
International Conference on Climate Change: Impacts and Responses - University
of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. 8-10 July 2010. Presentation:
Envisioning the Future:
a Methodology for City Scale Carbon Management.
International Conference on Human Ecology - University of Manchester, 29th June
- 3rd July 2009. Two presentations:
Carbon Emission Estimation Methodologies (in session 'Climate change and the
urban environment: the conceptual framework') and The
Low Carbon Futures for the Bristol Region (PhD Session).
'Sustainable Futures' Masters course lectures:
Carbon Management
- policy and practice and
Carbon Footprinting
- University of Iceland, 5th-7th March 2010
Environmental Protection UK Student Research Competition
Presentation - UWE, 28th July 2009
Faculty of
Environment and Technology Student Research Conference Presentation -
University of the West of England, 15th June 2009. Winner 'best presentation'
RGS-IBG Postgraduate Forum
mid-term conference presentation - University of Plymouth, 7th March 2009
Air Quality
Management Resource Centre seminar series presentation - Faculty of
Environment and Technology, UWE, 26th January 2009
South West Branch
of the Regional Studies Association, 1st Annual Conference
presentation
- UWE, 23rd January 2009
Environmental Protection UK Student Research Competition
Presentation - UWE, 31st July 2008
Presentations: Invited Speaker
'Your Green Future' event speaker,
'Bristol’s Green
Future?' - UWE, Bristol. 13 March 2012.
CATCH Project Interest
Group meeting presentation, 'Evaluation Methods for CO2' - POLIS,
Brussels, 17-18 February 2010
Presentations: Training and
teaching
Environmental Engineering Undergraduate Student Lecture:
Carbon Management: a Case Study of Bristol - University
of Iceland, 10th February 2009
'Sustainable Futures' Masters course lectures:
Carbon Management and
Carbon Footprinting - University of Iceland, 6-8th
February 2009
Posters
Sustainable Energy and the Environment Research Showcase
Poster - University of Bath, 17th September 2008
Official Documents
(Contact to request access)
Progression Report Part 1
Progression Report Part 2
Thesis Outline
Thesis
Delphi
Questionnaire Results
A PDF document containing the results of the first Delphi
survey can be downloaded here:
Questionnaire #1 Results. [Please note this is password
protected. Please contact for the password]
A PDF document containing the results of the second Delphi
survey can be downloaded here:
Questionnaire #2 Results. [Please note this is password
protected. Please contact for the password]
Other work
UWE Emission Inventory (access by invitation
only) |
